This page serves as a holding tank for the maps and other materials discussed in our Southwest Drought Learning Network's Drought Discussion Podcast. Scroll down to the bottom of the page to find PDFs of the maps described in each podcast.
Episode 4 was recorded on August 12th 2022. Curtis Riganti from the National Drought Mitigation Center gives an overview of the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center's temperature and precipitation outlooks for the months of July, August and September over Arizona, New Mexico and the Southern High Plains. And Julie Elliott from the Natural Resources Conservation Service describes the Grass-Cast maps made on August 9th. Episode 5 for the August 23rd Grasscast maps is coming soon!
If you have questions about the podcast or would like to suggest topics for future episodes, you can reach the Drought Discussion Podcast team by filling out this short form.
30-day Precipitation Outlook for August, 2022
The NOAA National Weather Service monthly precipitation outlook, published July 31st and valid for the month of August, 2022. During August, there is a "leaning above" chance (40 - 50%) of above average precipitation over Arizona and Utah. Neighboring states have a lower change of above average precipitation. Eastern New Mexico and parts the Southern High Plains have equal chances of normal precipitation or leaning below normal precipitation (33 - 40%)
90-day Precipitation Outlook for Aug, Sept, Oct 2022
The NOAA National Weather Service 90-day Seasonal precipitation outlook, published July 21 is valid for August, September and October 2022. It shows equal chances of above or below normal precipitation over Arizona and the western third of New Mexico. For New Mexico and the Southern Plains, the outlook is showing a 33 to 50% chance leaning below normal precipitation.
30-day Temperature Outlook for August, 2022
The NOAA National Weather Service 30-day temperature outlook, published July 31st is valid for August, 2022. It shows a low chance of below average temperatures over Arizona (33 - 50%). Low chances of above average temperatures (33-50%) feature over the Southern Plains. Elsewhere in the region, there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.
90-day Temperature Outlook for Aug, Sept, Oct 2022
The NOAA National Weather Service 90-day seasonal temperature outlook, published July 21st is valid for August, September and October 2022. It shows that on average, over this three-month period, temperatures will likely be above normal over the Southern Plains, New Mexico and northeast Arizona. There is a lower probability of higher than normal temperatures over the rest of Arizona. This return to higher than normal temperatures will likely become more pronounced as the monsoon retreats.
Grass-Cast forage productivity predictions for the Great Plains, August 9, 2022
These three maps show the possible forage production for Great Plains rangelands under three different scenarios (wet, normal, dry).
Grass-Cast productivity predictions, Southwest, August 9 2022
These three maps show the possible forage production for rangelands in Arizona and New Mexico under three different scenarios (wet, normal, dry).
U.S. Drought Monitor map, August 9 2022
The U.S. Drought Monitor maps shows extreme and exceptional drought persisting over the Southern Plains and severe to extreme drought dominating in New Mexico. Some areas of Extreme Drought over the Middle Rio Grande in NM appear to have returned since July 26. Despite promising monsoon rains, moderate to severe drought covers most of Arizona. Extreme drought persists in the northwest of Arizona.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, July 31 2022
The Drought Outlook is valid for August 1 through October 31st, drought is likely to persist over far southeast New Mexico and the Southern High Plains. Some improvement is predicted for most of Arizona and New Mexico with an area of drought removal likely over central Arizona and far south New Mexico and over the Upper Rio Grande.
CoCoRaHS Precipitation Mapping
CoCoRaHS is a network of citizen precipitation observers. The CoCoRaHS website has a really useful map that is very handy for visualizing how much rain fell during a certain period of time at observer locations. Knowing how much rain has fallen at your location is very helpful for interpreting Grass-Cast predictions. If there is no gauge near your location, please reach out to the SW Hub to become an observer. We can supply a gauge.
The maps and materials discussed in each of the podcasts are archived below: