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Central Appalachians Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

This assessment synthesizes the best available scientific information on climate change and forest ecosystems. Its primary goal is to inform forest managers in the Central Appalachian region, in addition to other people who study, recreate, and live in these forests.

Map of assessment area
The assessment area (shaded in blue): eastern Ohio, western Maryland, and the whole states of West Virginia..

Forests and ecosystems in the Central Appalachians region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. Understanding the potential impacts is an important first step to sustaining healthy forests in the face of changing conditions.

This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of nine forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland under a range of future climates.

This assessment synthesizes information on the contemporary landscape, provides information on past climate trends, and describes a range of projected future climates. This information was also used to parameterize and run multiple forest impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Results were vetted by a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Vulnerability is described in terms of the potential impacts on a forest ecosystem and the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem.


Major Findings

  • Analysis of climate records indicates that average temperatures are increasing, resulting in longer growing season.
  • Downscaled climate models project potential increases in temperature in every season, while precipitation is projected to increase early in the year (winter and spring) and decrease late in the year (summer and/or fall).
  • The forest impact model projections suggest that many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as eastern redcedar may benefit from projected changes in climate.
  • Appalachian (hemlock)/northern hardwood forests, large stream floodplain and riparian forests, small stream riparian forests, and spruce/fir forests were determined to be the most vulnerable.
  • Dry/mesic oak forests and dry oak and oak/pine forests and woodlands were determined to be least vulnerable.
  • Projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.
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Overview of key findings from the Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment



Details Of The Vulnerability Assessment

The information below is a summary of each chapter available in the vulnerability assessment. For more information and in-depth discussion please refer to the full report.


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How To Cite This Report

Butler, Patricia R.; Iverson, Louis R.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Brandt, Leslie A.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Christopher W.; Karriker, K.; Bartig, J.; Connolly, S.; Dijak, W.; Bearer, S.; Blatt, S.; Brandon, A.; Byers, E.; Coon, C.; Culbreth, T.; Daly, J.; Dorsey, W.; Ede, D.; Euler, C.; Gillies, N.; Hix, D.M.; Johnson, Catherine; Lyte, L.; Matthews, S.; McCarthy, D.; Minney, D.; Murphy, D.; O’Dea, C.; Orwan, R.; Peters, M.; Prasad, A.; Randall, C.; Reed, J.; Sandeno, C.; Schuler, T.; Sneddon, L.; Stanley, B.; Steele, Al; Stout, S.; Swaty, R.; Teets, J.; Tomon, T.; Vanderhorst, J.; Whatley, J.; Zegre, N. 2015. Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-146. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 310 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-146