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Northern Forests Vulnerability

Forests are a defining landscape feature throughout the Northern Forests Climate Hub and are central to ecological, economic, and cultural values in the region. These ecosystems are already responding to changing conditions, and future changes could dramatically alter the landscape that characterizes the region.

What is vulnerability?

Understanding the potential impacts arising from climate change is an important first step to sustaining healthy lands and waters in the face of changing conditions. A series of forest vulnerability assessments and synthesis products provide high-quality information about future changes in climate and the ways that ecosystems are expected to be affected.

Regional Impacts

Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Some general findings across the region include:

  • Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions.
  • However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnerability across the region.
  • Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions.
  • Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion.
  • Considering these potential forest vulnerabilities and opportunities is a critical step in making climate-informed decisions in long-term conservation planning.
Regional Vulnerability Synthesis One Page Summary

Citation: Swanston, C., Brandt, L.A., Janowiak, M.K. et al. Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change. Climatic Change 146, 103–116 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2065-2


Browse sub-regional forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments

  • Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province to a range of future climates.

    See Minnesota Assessment

  • Michigan Forest Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates.

    See Michigan Assessment

  • Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan Forest Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates.

    See Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan Assessment

  • Central Hardwoods Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates.

    See Central Hardwoods Assessment

  • Central Appalachian Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates.

    See Central Appalachian Assessment

  • Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of 11 forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New York) under a range of future climates.

    See Mid-Atlantic Assessment

  • New England Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

    This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates.

    See New England Assessment

  • Urban Vulnerability Assessments

    Visit the urban vulnerability home page for city-specific assessments and species lists.

    See Urban Vulnerability Assessments