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Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment

This assessment synthesizes the best available scientific information on climate change and forest ecosystems. Its primary goal is to inform forest managers in the Mid-Atlantic region, in addition to other people who study, recreate, and live in these forests.

Map of assessment area
The assessment area (shaded in orange): eastern Maryland, southern New York, and the whole states of Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey..

Forests and ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. Understanding the potential impacts is an important first step to sustaining healthy forests in the face of changing conditions.

This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of 11 forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Maryland, and southern New York) under a range of future climates.

This assessment synthesizes information on the contemporary landscape, provides information on past climate trends, and describes a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple forest impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Results were vetted between two multidisciplinary panels of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.

Major Findings

  • Analysis of climate records indicates that average temperatures and total precipitation in the region have increased.
  • Downscaled climate models project potential increases in temperature in every season, but vary in projections for precipitation.
  • The forest impact models project declines in growth and suitable habitat for many mesic species, including American beech, eastern hemlock, eastern white pine, red spruce, and sugar maple. Species that tolerate hotter, drier conditions are projected to persist or increase, including black oak, northern red oak, pignut hickory, sweetgum, and white oak.
  • The montane spruce-fir and lowland conifer forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems in the interior portion of the Mid-Atlantic region.
  • Maritime and tidal swamp forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems in the coastal plain portion of the region.
  • The woodland, glade, and barrens forest community was perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate.
  • These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.
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Overview of key findings from the Mid-Atlantic Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment



Details Of The Vulnerability Assessment

The information below is a summary of each chapter available in the vulnerability assessment. For more information and in-depth discussion please refer to the full report.


Download The Full Vulnerability assessment

How To Cite This Report

Butler-Leopold, Patricia R.; Iverson, Louis R.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Brandt, Leslie A.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Christopher W.; Bearer, Scott; Bryan, Alexander M.; Clark, Kenneth L.; Czarnecki, Greg; DeSenze, Philip; Dijak, William D.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Gugger, Paul F.; Hille, Andrea; Hynicka, Justin; Jantz, Claire A.; Kelly, Matthew C.; Krause, Katrina M.; La Puma, Inga Parker; Landau, Deborah; Lathrop, Richard G.; Leites, Laura P.; Madlinger, Evan; Matthews, Stephen N.; Ozbay, Gulnihal; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha; Schmit, David A.; Shephard, Collin; Shirer, Rebecca; Skowronski, Nicholas S.; Steele, Al; Stout, Susan; Thomas-Van Gundy, Melissa; Thompson, John; Turcotte, Richard M.; Weinstein, David A.; Y ez, Alfonso. 2018. Mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Mid-Atlantic Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-181. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 294 p.https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-181.https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-181