This assessment synthesizes the best available scientific information on climate change and forest ecosystems. Its primary goal is to inform forest managers in the Northeast region, in addition to other people who study, recreate, and live in these forests.
Forests and ecosystems in the Northeast region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. Understanding potential impacts is an important first step to sustaining healthy forests in the face of changing conditions. The assessment synthesizes information on the contemporary landscape, collects information on past climate trends, and describes a range of projected future climates. This information, in turn, is used as the basis of multiple forest impact models, which provide a range of potential tree responses to climate scenarios. The results of these models were vetted by two multidisciplinary panels of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process that evaluated 8 representative forest ecosystems in the Northeast region (northern New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Maine) under a range of future climates. The information below is a summary of each chapter available in the vulnerability assessment. For more information and in-depth discussion please refer to the full report. This chapter describes the forests and related ecosystems of New England and northern New York and summarizes current threats and management trends. The information lays the foundation for understanding how shifts in climate may contribute to changes in forest ecosystems, and how climate may interact with other stressors on the landscape. Many of the climatic changes that have been observed across the world over the past century are also evident in the assessment area. This chapter summarizes our current understanding of observed changes and current climate trends in the assessment area and across the Northeast region, with a focus on the last 50 to 100 years. This chapter describes climate projections for the assessment area over the 21st century. Temperature and precipitation projections are derived from downscaled simulations of climate models. Published scientific literature provides the basis for describing possible trends in a range of climate-driven processes, such as extreme weather events and snowfall. This chapter, drawing on information from a coordinated series of model simulations and published research, summarizes the potential impacts of climate change on forests in the assessment area. Forest ecosystems across New England and northern New York will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. We assessed the vulnerability of major forest systems in the assessment area to climate change through the year 2100, focusing on shifts in dominant species, system drivers, and stressors. The adaptive capacity of forest systems was also examined as a key component of overall vulnerability. Synthesis statements are provided to capture general trends, and detailed vulnerability determinations are provided for eight major forest systems. This chapter summarizes the implications of potential climate change to forest management and planning in the assessment area. This chapter does not make recommendations as to how management should be adjusted to cope with these impacts, because impacts and responses will differ by ecosystem, ownership, and management objective. Janowiak, Maria K.; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Swanston, Christopher W.; Iverson, Louis; Thompson, Frank R., III; Dijak, William D.; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha; Fraser, Jacob S.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler-Leopold, Patricia; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Burbank, Diane; Campbell, John; Cogbill, Charles; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Emery, Marla R.; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Foster, Jane; Hushaw, Jennifer; Kenefic, Laura; Mahaffey, Amanda; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Reo, Nicholas J.; Schaberg, Paul G.; Simmons, K. Rogers; Weiskittel, Aaron; Wilmot, Sandy; Hollinger, David; Lane, Erin; Rustad, Lindsey; Templer, Pamela H. 2018. New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-173. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 234 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/nrs-gtr-173
Major Findings
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Overview of key findings from the New England forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment
Details Of The Vulnerability Assessment
Potential Impacts on Drivers and Stressors
Potential Impacts on Forests
Adaptive Capacity Factors
How To Cite This Report
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Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species
Browse climate change projections for individual tree species.
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Northern Forests Vulnerability
Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the…
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Adaptation Tools
Tools to help professionals consider the potential effects of climate change on forests, and to design actions that can help ecosystems cope under changing…